ABI Research Report: Commercial rollout of industrial 5G delayed by pandemic disruptions
ABI Research報(bào)告：新冠疫情大流行延遲工業(yè)5G的商用推廣

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced a delay in the crucial standardization work that would make 5G available for enterprise use cases. The relevant standardization body, 3GPP, has formally announced a deferral of this standardization until at least June 2020, which would delay commercial rollout of industrial 5G until at least 2022. Given that most industrial enterprises are looking to upgrade their communication technology in 2021, this delay will result in 5G missing out on at least 25% of the revenue opportunities within industrial enterprises, which given the importance of industrial use cases for overall 5G revenues, this translates into 5G losing up to 10% of total 5G revenues. In the long-run, this could result in a shortfall of several U.S. billion dollars in contribution to the global economy, states global tech market advisory firm, ABI Research.

新冠肺炎迫使部署5G用于企業(yè)應(yīng)用的關(guān)鍵標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化工作推遲。相關(guān)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化機(jī)構(gòu)3GPP已正式宣布將該標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化推遲至2020年6月，這將把工業(yè)5G的商業(yè)推廣至少推遲到2022年。鑒于大多數(shù)工業(yè)企業(yè)都希望在2021年升級(jí)其通信技術(shù)，這一延遲將導(dǎo)致5G失去工業(yè)企業(yè)至少25％的收入機(jī)會(huì)，考慮到工業(yè)應(yīng)用對(duì)5G總體收入的重要性，這意味著5G損失了5G總收入的10％。全球技術(shù)市場(chǎng)咨詢(xún)公司ABI Research指出，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)減少幾十億美元。

“This is a blow to the standards bodies and the timeline of 5G,” says Leo Gergs, Principal Analyst at ABI Research. “The cancellation of leading industry events, such as Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, caused more complicated workflows for the 3GPP. As a result, the freeze of Release 16 (which is of key importance for 5G applications in industrial and logistics environments) has been delayed until June. This would, in turn, push the rollout of 5G into warehouses, shipping ports, and factory floors until at least 2022.”

ABI Research首席分析師Leo Gergs說(shuō)：“這是對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)機(jī)構(gòu)和5G時(shí)間線(xiàn)的一個(gè)打擊。諸如巴塞羅那世界移動(dòng)大會(huì)等領(lǐng)先行業(yè)活動(dòng)的取消，導(dǎo)致3GPP的工作流程更加復(fù)雜。因此，對(duì)于工業(yè)和物流環(huán)境中5G應(yīng)用至關(guān)重要的第16版的凍結(jié)已推遲到6月份。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，這將使得推動(dòng)5G在倉(cāng)庫(kù)、航運(yùn)港口和工廠(chǎng)車(chē)間的推廣，至少要等到2022年。”

Even though, in the short-term, this current pandemic is putting the timely enterprise rollout of 5G at risk (due to the delay in standardization framework), in the long-term, enterprise verticals will consider 5G for automating workflows in factories and other industrial environments in order to keep supply chain disruptions at a minimum. “However, we will also see 5G applications for life-critical verticals, such as agriculture/food production, to pick up pace, while a growing number of countries will consider enhancing their healthcare sector with 5G-enabled capabilities,” Gergs points out.

盡管從短期來(lái)看，當(dāng)前疫情大流行使企業(yè)及時(shí)推出5G面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(由于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化框架的延遲)，但從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，企業(yè)垂直部門(mén)將考慮在工廠(chǎng)和其他工業(yè)環(huán)境中使用5G來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)工作流程自動(dòng)化，以便將供應(yīng)鏈中斷降至最低。 Gergs指出：“但是，我們也將看到5G應(yīng)用在農(nóng)業(yè)/食品生產(chǎn)等對(duì)生命至關(guān)重要的垂直行業(yè)中加速發(fā)展，同時(shí)越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家將考慮利用5G功能增強(qiáng)其醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)。”

Situations like these underline the importance of a technologically up-to-date healthcare system, as well as more automation in factories and production outlets. However, the current situation around COVID-19 will most probably induce a shift in the verticals that investigate 5G deployment. “While it puts 5G applications in industrial surroundings in a difficult position, current experiences will ignite considerations for 5G applications in healthcare and agriculture/food production. The telco ecosystem must prepare for this shift,” Gergs recommends.

諸如此類(lèi)的情況突顯了醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)采納最新技術(shù)，以及工廠(chǎng)和生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)點(diǎn)自動(dòng)化程度的重要性。不過(guò)，新冠肺炎的現(xiàn)狀很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致研究5G部署的垂直市場(chǎng)發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變。“雖然這讓5G在工業(yè)環(huán)境中的應(yīng)用陷入困境，但當(dāng)前的經(jīng)驗(yàn)將激發(fā)對(duì)5G在醫(yī)療保健和農(nóng)業(yè)/食品生產(chǎn)中的應(yīng)用的考慮。電信業(yè)界必須為這一轉(zhuǎn)變做好準(zhǔn)備，”Gergs建議。